Monte Carlo · group stage
Who's likely to advance? — 10,000 simulations
Each remaining match is simulated with Poisson goals (means driven by Elo difference). Top 2 in each group + 8 best 3rd-place teams advance to the R32. Already-played scores in data/raw/fixtures.json are used directly — remaining matches are simulated. Re-run npm run build:data after scores update.
Status: 0 of 72 matches played · all matches simulated.
Championship contenders
Argentina24.5%to win it
Reach final36%
Reach SF51%
Reach QF66%
France17.2%to win it
Reach final29%
Reach SF45%
Reach QF61%
Brazil10.6%to win it
Reach final19%
Reach SF35%
Reach QF53%
Spain8.8%to win it
Reach final17%
Reach SF31%
Reach QF44%
England7.7%to win it
Reach final16%
Reach SF31%
Reach QF52%
Portugal6.6%to win it
Reach final14%
Reach SF26%
Reach QF51%
Netherlands5.6%to win it
Reach final13%
Reach SF24%
Reach QF45%
Germany5.3%to win it
Reach final12%
Reach SF24%
Reach QF39%
Projected Round of 32
Most-likely team in each slot · Elo favorite highlighted in boldRound of 32
16 matches · Jun 28 → Jul 3
R16 → Final projections unlock once group-stage results land. Until then, see Monte Carlo championship % in the table below.
Projected group standings
Per-team position probabilities, expected points, expected goal difference, and advance%. Most-likely finish for each team highlighted in amber.
Group ADifficulty rank #12 of 12 · Sum Elo 6810
| Team | Top | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | xPts | xGD | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mexico | 38% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 5.0 | +1.3 | 82% |
 South Korea | 33% | 29% | 23% | 16% | 4.8 | +0.9 | 79% |
 Czech Republic | 20% | 26% | 28% | 25% | 3.9 | -0.3 | 66% |
 South Africa | 10% | 16% | 27% | 46% | 2.9 | -2.0 | 44% |
Group BDifficulty rank #11 of 12 · Sum Elo 6830
| Team | Top | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | xPts | xGD | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Switzerland | 41% | 27% | 20% | 13% | 5.2 | +1.6 | 83% |
 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 23% | 26% | 26% | 24% | 4.0 | -0.1 | 68% |
 Canada | 23% | 26% | 26% | 25% | 4.0 | -0.1 | 68% |
 Qatar | 14% | 21% | 27% | 38% | 3.3 | -1.3 | 53% |
Group CDifficulty rank #6 of 12 · Sum Elo 7015
| Team | Top | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | xPts | xGD | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brazil | 63% | 26% | 9% | 1% | 6.7 | +4.0 | 97% |
 Morocco | 26% | 42% | 26% | 7% | 5.0 | +1.4 | 86% |
 Scotland | 10% | 26% | 44% | 19% | 3.7 | -0.7 | 65% |
 Haiti | 1% | 5% | 21% | 73% | 1.4 | -4.7 | 16% |
Group DDifficulty rank #7 of 12 · Sum Elo 6990
| Team | Top | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | xPts | xGD | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Turkey | 33% | 28% | 22% | 17% | 4.7 | +0.9 | 78% |
 United States | 32% | 27% | 24% | 18% | 4.7 | +0.8 | 76% |
 Australia | 21% | 24% | 27% | 28% | 3.9 | -0.4 | 65% |
 Paraguay | 15% | 21% | 27% | 38% | 3.3 | -1.2 | 53% |
Group EDifficulty rank #10 of 12 · Sum Elo 6835
| Team | Top | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | xPts | xGD | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Germany | 61% | 26% | 11% | 2% | 6.5 | +3.8 | 96% |
 Ecuador | 19% | 34% | 35% | 12% | 4.4 | +0.4 | 78% |
 Ivory Coast | 19% | 34% | 35% | 13% | 4.4 | +0.3 | 77% |
 Curaçao | 1% | 6% | 19% | 73% | 1.5 | -4.5 | 17% |
Group FDifficulty rank #1 of 12 · Sum Elo 7235
| Team | Top | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | xPts | xGD | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Netherlands | 55% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 5.9 | +2.7 | 91% |
 Japan | 22% | 30% | 27% | 20% | 4.2 | +0.1 | 72% |
 Sweden | 14% | 25% | 30% | 30% | 3.6 | -0.9 | 60% |
 Tunisia | 9% | 19% | 29% | 43% | 2.9 | -1.9 | 46% |
Group GDifficulty rank #8 of 12 · Sum Elo 6935
| Team | Top | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | xPts | xGD | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Belgium | 58% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 6.2 | +3.1 | 94% |
 Iran | 21% | 33% | 30% | 17% | 4.3 | +0.3 | 74% |
 Egypt | 17% | 30% | 33% | 20% | 4.0 | -0.2 | 69% |
 New Zealand | 4% | 11% | 26% | 59% | 2.1 | -3.2 | 30% |
Group HDifficulty rank #5 of 12 · Sum Elo 7070
| Team | Top | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | xPts | xGD | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Spain | 61% | 27% | 9% | 3% | 6.5 | +3.7 | 96% |
 Uruguay | 29% | 42% | 21% | 8% | 5.2 | +1.6 | 87% |
 Saudi Arabia | 7% | 21% | 41% | 31% | 3.1 | -1.7 | 53% |
 Cape Verde | 2% | 10% | 29% | 59% | 2.0 | -3.6 | 27% |
Group IDifficulty rank #3 of 12 · Sum Elo 7220
| Team | Top | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | xPts | xGD | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 France | 64% | 24% | 10% | 2% | 6.6 | +3.8 | 96% |
 Norway | 17% | 34% | 34% | 15% | 4.2 | +0.1 | 74% |
 Senegal | 17% | 34% | 34% | 15% | 4.3 | +0.1 | 75% |
 Iraq | 2% | 8% | 22% | 68% | 1.7 | -4.1 | 21% |
Group JDifficulty rank #4 of 12 · Sum Elo 7125
| Team | Top | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | xPts | xGD | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Argentina | 74% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 7.1 | +4.8 | 98% |
 Austria | 18% | 44% | 27% | 11% | 4.6 | +0.7 | 80% |
 Algeria | 7% | 26% | 41% | 26% | 3.3 | -1.4 | 58% |
 Jordan | 1% | 10% | 27% | 62% | 1.8 | -4.0 | 23% |
Group KDifficulty rank #9 of 12 · Sum Elo 6885
| Team | Top | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | xPts | xGD | Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Portugal | 61% | 29% | 8% | 2% | 6.6 | +3.8 | 96% |
 Colombia | 31% | 43% | 18% | 8% | 5.2 | +1.7 | 87% |
 DR Congo | 5% | 16% | 39% | 40% | 2.6 | -2.5 | 42% |
 Uzbekistan | 4% | 13% | 34% | 50% | 2.3 | -3.0 | 35% |
Most likely group winners
Group A38% chance
Mexico
Advance 82% · Exp 5.0 pts
Group B41% chance
Switzerland
Advance 83% · Exp 5.2 pts
Group C63% chance
Brazil
Advance 97% · Exp 6.7 pts
Group D33% chance
Turkey
Advance 78% · Exp 4.7 pts
Group E61% chance
Germany
Advance 96% · Exp 6.5 pts
Group F55% chance
Netherlands
Advance 91% · Exp 5.9 pts
Group G58% chance
Belgium
Advance 94% · Exp 6.2 pts
Group H61% chance
Spain
Advance 96% · Exp 6.5 pts
Group I64% chance
France
Advance 96% · Exp 6.6 pts
Group J74% chance
Argentina
Advance 98% · Exp 7.1 pts
Group K61% chance
Portugal
Advance 96% · Exp 6.6 pts
Group L51% chance
England
Advance 93% · Exp 6.0 pts
Dark horses — low Elo, decent advance chance
Upset watch — strong teams at risk
All 48 teams · advancement probabilities
Confederation:10,000 simulations · uses real scores when present
| # | Team | Grp | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Argentina | J | 74% | 98% | 66% | 51% | 36% | 24.5% | 7.1 | 2140 |
| 2 |  Brazil | C | 63% | 97% | 53% | 35% | 19% | 10.6% | 6.7 | 2055 |
| 3 |  Germany | E | 61% | 96% | 39% | 24% | 12% | 5.3% | 6.5 | 1995 |
| 4 |  Portugal | K | 61% | 96% | 51% | 26% | 14% | 6.6% | 6.6 | 2005 |
| 5 |  France | I | 64% | 96% | 61% | 45% | 29% | 17.2% | 6.6 | 2095 |
| 6 |  Spain | H | 61% | 96% | 44% | 31% | 17% | 8.8% | 6.5 | 2045 |
| 7 |  Belgium | G | 58% | 94% | 46% | 22% | 11% | 4.5% | 6.2 | 1975 |
| 8 |  England | L | 51% | 93% | 52% | 31% | 16% | 7.7% | 6.0 | 2025 |
| 9 |  Netherlands | F | 55% | 91% | 45% | 24% | 13% | 5.6% | 5.9 | 2010 |
| 10 |  Croatia | L | 38% | 89% | 39% | 20% | 8% | 3.3% | 5.5 | 1955 |
| 11 |  Colombia | K | 31% | 87% | 22% | 8% | 3% | 0.8% | 5.2 | 1850 |
| 12 |  Uruguay | H | 29% | 87% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 0.9% | 5.2 | 1885 |
| 13 |  Morocco | C | 26% | 86% | 23% | 9% | 3% | 0.9% | 5.0 | 1860 |
| 14 |  Switzerland | B | 41% | 83% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 0.4% | 5.2 | 1820 |
| 15 |  Mexico | A | 38% | 82% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0.3% | 5.0 | 1800 |
| 16 |  Austria | J | 18% | 80% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0.4% | 4.6 | 1830 |
| 17 |  South Korea | A | 33% | 79% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0.1% | 4.8 | 1770 |
| 18 |  Turkey | D | 33% | 78% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0.3% | 4.7 | 1810 |
| 19 |  Ecuador | E | 19% | 78% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0.1% | 4.4 | 1735 |
| 20 |  Ivory Coast | E | 19% | 77% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0.1% | 4.4 | 1735 |
| 21 |  United States | D | 32% | 76% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0.3% | 4.7 | 1810 |
| 22 |  Senegal | I | 17% | 75% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0.2% | 4.3 | 1810 |
| 23 |  Norway | I | 17% | 74% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0.5% | 4.2 | 1815 |
| 24 |  Iran | G | 21% | 74% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0.1% | 4.3 | 1750 |
| 25 |  Japan | F | 22% | 72% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0.2% | 4.2 | 1815 |
| 26 |  Egypt | G | 17% | 69% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0.1% | 4.0 | 1715 |
| 27 |  Canada | B | 23% | 68% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0.0% | 4.0 | 1700 |
| 28 |  Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | 23% | 68% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0.0% | 4.0 | 1700 |
| 29 |  Czech Republic | A | 20% | 66% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0.0% | 3.9 | 1685 |
| 30 |  Scotland | C | 10% | 65% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0.0% | 3.7 | 1700 |
| 31 |  Australia | D | 21% | 65% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | 3.9 | 1715 |
| 32 |  Sweden | F | 14% | 60% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0.1% | 3.6 | 1745 |
| 33 |  Algeria | J | 7% | 58% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0% | 3.3 | 1675 |
| 34 |  Paraguay | D | 15% | 53% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 3.3 | 1655 |
| 35 |  Qatar | B | 14% | 53% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 3.3 | 1610 |
| 36 |  Saudi Arabia | H | 7% | 53% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0% | 3.1 | 1640 |
| 37 |  Tunisia | F | 9% | 46% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0% | 2.9 | 1665 |
| 38 |  South Africa | A | 10% | 44% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 2.9 | 1555 |
| 39 |  Ghana | L | 6% | 44% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 2.7 | 1640 |
| 40 |  DR Congo | K | 5% | 42% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 2.6 | 1530 |
| 41 |  Panama | L | 5% | 38% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 2.5 | 1610 |
| 42 |  Uzbekistan | K | 4% | 35% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 2.3 | 1500 |
| 43 |  New Zealand | G | 4% | 30% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 2.1 | 1495 |
| 44 |  Cape Verde | H | 2% | 27% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 1500 |
| 45 |  Jordan | J | 1% | 23% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 1.8 | 1480 |
| 46 |  Iraq | I | 2% | 21% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 1.7 | 1500 |
| 47 |  Curaçao | E | 1% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 1.5 | 1370 |
| 48 |  Haiti | C | 1% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 1.4 | 1400 |
Methodology
Group stage: goals modeled as Poisson with λA = max(0.15, 1.4 + (EloA − EloB)/600). Standings broken by points → goal diff → goals for → team code.
Knockout (R32 → Final): direct Elo win probability, pA = 1 / (1 + 10(EloB − EloA)/400). Third-place qualifiers assigned to FIFA's 8 bracket slots via backtracking constraint solver (each slot accepts a 3rd from one of 5 published groups).
10,000 simulations. Real scores in fixtures.json are used when present; remaining matches are simulated.