Projection · knockout stage
Projected bracket
One plausible path from Round of 32 to the Final, projected from the model's current group-stage state. R32 slots are filled with each group's projected finishers. R16 → Final cascades the higher-Elo team at each step.
36 / 72group-stage matches played · real bracket locks in 2026-06-27
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Projected champion
Shows what the bracket looks like if the favorite wins every match. The 16.9% above is Spain's actual odds across 10,000 simulations — most real paths involve upsets.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Final
Final
Semifinals
Quarterfinals
Round of 16
Round of 32
How this bracket is drawn: Round-of-32 slots come from each group's projected finishers — top two from each group, plus the 8 best third-place teams matched to their FIFA-assigned slots. From there, the higher-Elo team is shown advancing at every step, cascading to the Final. That makes the displayed path one clean scenario where every favorite wins, not the most likely actual outcome — see /predictions for the per-team odds. Real R32 bracket locks in on 2026-06-27.
Want the full per-team odds — top-of-group, advance, R16, QF, SF, Final, champion? See the Monte Carlo board on /predictions.